Some bold predictions from Mike…

I’ll be bold myself and summarize, but definitely check out Mike’s post for the details on his 2008 predictions:

  1. Zillow does not go IPO
  2. Barton drops CEO title at Zillow
  3. 5 VPs leave Zillow
  4. Redfin gives premium, full-price option
  5. Trulia gets more traffic than Zillow

A big focus on Zillow and not a bad prediction in the bunch.  Nonetheless, here’s my opinions on Mike’s predictions:

  1. Completely agree.   The only way I change my mind is if the mortgage product makes a HUGE splash early in the year (i.e. pre- RE Connect in NYC).  Zillow becomes a LOT more valuable if they can launch one more thing that captures public attention along the lines of Zestimates, and I think, but clearly don’t know, that Barton would feel like he was selling early investors short if he didn’t wait until Zillow did one more big thing (Smart Search clearly does not count).
  2. Disagree. Rich has to do one more big thing before he steps back from Zillow.  He won’t do it pre-IPO.
  3. Disagree. I don’t see this happening.   Again, it’d be like conceding defeat.   Too much money on the line for that.
  4. Disagree. I don’t see this one happening.   Redfin already started going down that path of premium services with the ability for buyers to pay for tours by the hour, but I don’t think Glenn can spin a 6% commission into TV appearances. I expect them to focus on innovative PR initiatives, since that is much closer to the their DNA.
  5. Definitely.  Although that means we’ll probably see even more of David G telling us Zillow’s internal logs show double the traffic.   (Good news if Zillow goes IPO: As Move was a publicly-traded company, I was told never to discuss internal logs…  Although I never found out why, I always assumed this was because there was a fear we’d have to open the logs to investors if we started talking about them.)

The Fool thinks we should look out for…

…a Zillow IPO in 2008:

“I’ve been enamored with Zillow since its launch nearly two years ago. At the time, it was an edgy though admittedly imperfect Web-based application for finding what your home was worth. It didn’t seem like much, but it was a model so refreshing in the real estate industry that it dealt uppercuts to stodgy models like HouseValues (Nasdaq: SOLD).

“Zillow was the brainchild of Expedia‘s (Nasdaq: EXPE) founder, so it’s really just a matter of time before the company follows suit and goes public. Even with dot-com realty plays like HouseValues and Realtor.com parent Move (Nadsaq: MOVE) trading in the mid-single digits, Zillow has enough Teflon to make it as an IPO. Its ad-supported model is appealing to customers, advertisers, and even a growing fleet of partners that now includes a consortium of local newspapers.”